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This searing novel in poems explores a cross-class romance—and a tragic event in U. Join Reader Rewards and earn your way to a free book! Join Reader Rewards and earn points when you purchase this book from your favorite retailer. Read An Excerpt. Paperback —. Add to Cart. This is her first novel. Product Details. Inspired by Your Browsing History. The Upper Basin also has serious issues, one of which ripples into the Lower Basin.

Tim McGraw

Under such low reservoir conditions, there is also a high likelihood that the Upper Basin states would have to curtail existing water deliveries to cities such as Denver, Colorado Springs, Albuquerque and Salt Lake City in order to make required deliveries to Lake Mead. Heretofore, largely because of the structure of the Colorado River Compact, the Upper Basin and Lower Basin have been managed separately.

The original compact, signed during one of the wettest periods in the last years [ Woodhouse et al. Understanding the cause of, and reacting properly to, the ongoing drought is critical to the future of the Southwest. Moreover, we make a novel—and important—case that there is a high likelihood that the impacts of continued atmospheric warming will overwhelm any future increases in precipitation because prolonged dry periods lasting multiple decades are likely to negate the beneficial impacts of additional precipitation during other times.

In addition, we obtained reservoir contents and natural flows at Lees Ferry from the U. Bureau of Reclamation Reclamation Text S1. Historically, Upper Colorado River Basin precipitation has been the main Colorado River runoff driver such that high flow years s, s were associated with high precipitation and low flow years s, s with low precipitation Figures 2 b and 2 c. What has changed is that temperatures in the runoff producing Upper Basin are now 0. This makes the current drought unprecedented in the gaged record. Since an increase in the frequency of warm years has been strongly associated with lower flows than expected [ Woodhouse et al.

Higher temperatures increase atmospheric moisture demand, evaporation from water bodies and soil, sublimation from snow, evapotranspiration ET from plants, and also increase the length of the growing season during which ET occurs [ Pitman , ; Weiss et al. Warm season April to September warming has been identified by models as especially important in reducing Colorado River flows because of the increases in ET from longer growing seasons [ Das et al. Increases in measured vapor pressure deficits in the Southwest caused by warming and a decrease in water vapor provide strong support for higher ET during the recent drought [ Seager et al.

As increasing temperatures drive further drying, additional positive feedbacks are possible in the form of lower humidity and less evaporative cooling, decreased cloudiness and increased incident radiation, as well as decreased snow cover and more radiative heating [ Betts et al. In the twentieth century, droughts were associated almost exclusively with a lack of precipitation.

THE BOOK OF THE PROPHET JEREMIAH

In this century, however, high temperatures alone can lead to anomalously dry conditions. Over the last several years several studies specific to the Colorado River Basin have investigated the specific relationships among temperatures, precipitation and flow in the basin using the concepts of temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity [ McCabe and Wolock , ; Nowak et al. Temperature sensitivity is defined as the percent change in annual flow per degree rise in annual temperature.

Precipitation elasticity is defined as the fractional change in annual flow divided by the fractional change in annual precipitation [ Vano et al. Note that elasticity has been studied for both increases and decreases in precipitation, whereas sensitivity is typically investigated only for temperature increases. These numbers can be determined empirically and through model studies.

Previous studies on temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity show that future impacts to streamflow from increases in temperatures and changes in precipitation can be considered separately using sensitivity and elasticity, and then added together to produce flow estimates [ Vano et al. Considering these effects separately and additively is a powerful conceptual tool for investigating climate change impacts because of the ease in measuring the two variables for current impacts and the wide availability of temperature and precipitation projections from global climate models for assessing future impacts.

In addition, the large differences in certainty associated with future changes in the two variables temperature will surely increase, whereas precipitation may increase or decrease—see below helps to set apart the risk of future changes in flow associated with each variable.


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Vano et al. Using this range, we found that recent warming of 0.

The Amazon’s Boiling River Kills Anything That Enters

The higher temperature sensitivities of the two other studies suggest the actual Colorado River temperature sensitivities are near the upper end and possibly exceed the Vano et al. Empirical results from the to drought also point to mid to high temperature sensitivities. Thus, using a midrange precipitation elasticity of 2.

When Rising Seas Transform Risk Into Certainty

Using a precipitation elasticity of 3. These temperature sensitivities imply large losses as temperatures rise, the subject of the next section. By , moderate and high emissions are projected to yield Upper Basin mean warming of 2. As discussed above, there is little empirical evidence that the true temperature sensitivity of flow to temperature increase is near the low sensitivity.

Precipitation increases needed to counteract flow losses at right are based on 2. While these may seem like relatively small increases in precipitation, and thus possible, they would represent a major and unprecedented change in precipitation regime compared to the observed historical variation in precipitation Figure 2 c. This unusual period was marked by major floods downstream of Lakes Powell and Mead due to uncontrolled reservoir spilling and the near catastrophic loss of the spillways at Glen Canyon Dam [ Udall , ].

Recent studies have suggested that CO 2 fertilization may increase plant water efficiency thus reducing future evapotranspiration which could serve to mitigate our projected losses [ Milly and Dunne , ; Swann et al. However, Milly and Dunne [ ] and Swann et al. These results suggest that plant physiological responses are likely consistent with our results, and in any case, do not invalidate them.

Megadroughts lasting decades in the Colorado River Basin have occurred in the past, with resulting substantial flow reductions [ Meko et al. In addition, current GCMs underrepresent the frequency of megadrought [ Ault et al. Significant Colorado River flow losses occurred during previous multidecadal megadroughts. There is recent strong evidence that continued warming over the next 80 years could increase the risk of multidecadal drought [ Ault et al. A key novel aspect of our research is to provide more insight into where confidence is warranted, and where it is not, with respect to projections of future climate and flow change in the Colorado River Basin.

The fact that observations also show substantial warming only strengthens this assertion. Whereas climate models are in general agreement that cool season warm season much less certain precipitation declines are likely in the Lower Colorado River Basin, these same models disagree when it comes to the sign and amount of precipitation change that is likely in the Upper Basin. Multiple studies, including some focused on the American Southwest, suggest that the proximate cause of this drying, Hadley Cell expansion, is already well underway and will continue [ Seager et al. However, our work, as well as this larger body of literature, appears to be at odds with the recent Reclamation projections for the Colorado River Basin, which are widely cited and used.

When rising seas transform risk into certainty.

Reclamation's projections use a global climate model output that is downscaled to drive a hydrology model. It is worth understanding why our results emphasize substantially greater risks along with apparently greater flow losses. The first step in Reclamation's downscaling is a bias correction step. The final downscaling step, spatial downscaling, also increases GCM precipitation, although there is at least a plausible physical explanation for some of the increase: higher elevations in the Rockies receive large amounts of precipitation, but these elevations are not properly modeled by the GCMs.

As with the other theses covered under the umbrella of rationalism, the more types and greater number of concepts a philosopher claims to be innate, the more controversial and radical their position; "the more a concept seems removed from experience and the mental operations we can perform on experience the more plausibly it may be claimed to be innate. Since we do not experience perfect triangles but do experience pains, our concept of the former is a more promising candidate for being innate than our concept of the latter.

My understanding of what a thing is, what truth is, and what thought is, seems to derive simply from my own nature. But my hearing a noise, as I do now, or seeing the sun, or feeling the fire, comes from things which are located outside me, or so I have hitherto judged. Lastly, siren s, hippogriffs and the like are my own invention. Adventitious ideas are those concepts that we gain through sense experiences, ideas such as the sensation of heat, because they originate from outside sources; transmitting their own likeness rather than something else and something you simply cannot will away.

Ideas invented by us, such as those found in mythology , legends , and fairy tales are created by us from other ideas we possess. Lastly, innate ideas, such as our ideas of perfection , are those ideas we have as a result of mental processes that are beyond what experience can directly or indirectly provide. Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz defends the idea of innate concepts by suggesting the mind plays a role in determining the nature of concepts, to explain this, he likens the mind to a block of marble in the New Essays on Human Understanding , "This is why I have taken as an illustration a block of veined marble, rather than a wholly uniform block or blank tablets, that is to say what is called tabula rasa in the language of the philosophers.

For if the soul were like those blank tablets, truths would be in us in the same way as the figure of Hercules is in a block of marble, when the marble is completely indifferent whether it receives this or some other figure. But if there were veins in the stone which marked out the figure of Hercules rather than other figures, this stone would be more determined thereto, and Hercules would be as it were in some manner innate in it, although labour would be needed to uncover the veins, and to clear them by polishing, and by cutting away what prevents them from appearing.

It is in this way that ideas and truths are innate in us, like natural inclinations and dispositions, natural habits or potentialities, and not like activities, although these potentialities are always accompanied by some activities which correspond to them, though they are often imperceptible. To be considered a rationalist, one must adopt at least one of those three claims.

The following two theses are traditionally adopted by rationalists, but they aren't essential to the rationalist's position. The Indispensability of Reason Thesis has the following rationale, "The knowledge we gain in subject area, S , by intuition and deduction, as well as the ideas and instances of knowledge in S that are innate to us, could not have been gained by us through sense experience. The Superiority of Reason Thesis has the following rationale, '"The knowledge we gain in subject area S by intuition and deduction or have innately is superior to any knowledge gained by sense experience".

In addition to the following claims, rationalists often adopt similar stances on other aspects of philosophy. Most rationalists reject skepticism for the areas of knowledge they claim are knowable a priori. Naturally, when you claim some truths are innately known to us, one must reject skepticism in relation to those truths. This is the view that we know some truths without basing our belief in them on any others and that we then use this foundational knowledge to know more truths. Rationalism - as an appeal to human reason as a way of obtaining knowledge - has a philosophical history dating from antiquity.

The analytical nature of much of philosophical enquiry, the awareness of apparently a priori domains of knowledge such as mathematics, combined with the emphasis of obtaining knowledge through the use of rational faculties commonly rejecting, for example, direct revelation have made rationalist themes very prevalent in the history of philosophy.

Three Rivers Rising

Since the Enlightenment, rationalism is usually associated with the introduction of mathematical methods into philosophy as seen in the works of Descartes , Leibniz , and Spinoza. Even then, the distinction between rationalists and empiricists was drawn at a later period and would not have been recognized by the philosophers involved.

Also, the distinction between the two philosophies is not as clear-cut as is sometimes suggested; for example, Descartes and Locke have similar views about the nature of human ideas. Proponents of some varieties of rationalism argue that, starting with foundational basic principles, like the axioms of geometry , one could deductively derive the rest of all possible knowledge.

The philosophers who held this view most clearly were Baruch Spinoza and Gottfried Leibniz , whose attempts to grapple with the epistemological and metaphysical problems raised by Descartes led to a development of the fundamental approach of rationalism. Both Spinoza and Leibniz asserted that, in principle , all knowledge, including scientific knowledge, could be gained through the use of reason alone, though they both observed that this was not possible in practice for human beings except in specific areas such as mathematics.

On the other hand, Leibniz admitted in his book Monadology that "we are all mere Empirics in three fourths of our actions. Although rationalism in its modern form post-dates antiquity, philosophers from this time laid down the foundations of rationalism. He is considered to be the first known proponent of Indian materialism, and forerunner to the Charvaka school of Indian thought, which holds direct perception , empiricism , and conditional inference as proper sources of knowledge, embraces philosophical skepticism and rejects Vedas, Vedic ritualism , and supernaturalism.

Pythagoras was one of the first Western philosophers to stress rationalist insight. Pythagoras "believed these harmonies reflected the ultimate nature of reality. He summed up the implied metaphysical rationalism in the words "All is number".

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It is probable that he had caught the rationalist's vision, later seen by Galileo — , of a world governed throughout by mathematically formulable laws". Plato held rational insight to a very high standard, as is seen in his works such as Meno and The Republic. He taught on the Theory of Forms or the Theory of Ideas [47] [48] [49] which asserts that the highest and most fundamental kind of reality is not the material world of change known to us through sensation , but rather the abstract, non-material but substantial world of forms or ideas.

Aristotle 's main contribution to rationalist thinking was the use of syllogistic logic and its use in argument. Aristotle defines syllogism as "a discourse in which certain specific things having been supposed, something different from the things supposed results of necessity because these things are so. Although the three great Greek philosophers disagreed with one another on specific points, they all agreed that rational thought could bring to light knowledge that was self-evident — information that humans otherwise couldn't know without the use of reason. After Aristotle's death, Western rationalistic thought was generally characterized by its application to theology, such as in the works of Augustine , the Islamic philosopher Avicenna and Jewish philosopher and theologian Maimonides.

One notable event in the Western timeline was the philosophy of Thomas Aquinas who attempted to merge Greek rationalism and Christian revelation in the thirteenth-century. Descartes was the first of the modern rationalists and has been dubbed the 'Father of Modern Philosophy. He also argued that although dreams appear as real as sense experience , these dreams cannot provide persons with knowledge. Also, since conscious sense experience can be the cause of illusions, then sense experience itself can be doubtable.

As a result, Descartes deduced that a rational pursuit of truth should doubt every belief about sensory reality. Descartes developed a method to attain truths according to which nothing that cannot be recognised by the intellect or reason can be classified as knowledge. These truths are gained "without any sensory experience," according to Descartes. Truths that are attained by reason are broken down into elements that intuition can grasp, which, through a purely deductive process, will result in clear truths about reality.

Descartes therefore argued, as a result of his method, that reason alone determined knowledge, and that this could be done independently of the senses. For instance, his famous dictum, cogito ergo sum or "I think, therefore I am", is a conclusion reached a priori i. The simple meaning is that doubting one's existence, in and of itself, proves that an "I" exists to do the thinking. In other words, doubting one's own doubting is absurd. Descartes posited a metaphysical dualism , distinguishing between the substances of the human body " res extensa " and the mind or soul " res cogitans ".

This crucial distinction would be left unresolved and lead to what is known as the mind-body problem , since the two substances in the Cartesian system are independent of each other and irreducible.


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  4. The philosophy of Baruch Spinoza is a systematic, logical, rational philosophy developed in seventeenth-century Europe. Many of Spinoza's ideas continue to vex thinkers today and many of his principles, particularly regarding the emotions , have implications for modern approaches to psychology. To this day, many important thinkers have found Spinoza's "geometrical method" [66] difficult to comprehend: Goethe admitted that he found this concept confusing [ citation needed ].

    His magnum opus , Ethics , contains unresolved obscurities and has a forbidding mathematical structure modeled on Euclid's geometry. Leibniz was the last major figure of seventeenth-century rationalism who contributed heavily to other fields such as metaphysics , epistemology , logic , mathematics , physics , jurisprudence , and the philosophy of religion ; he is also considered to be one of the last "universal geniuses".

    Leibniz rejected Cartesian dualism and denied the existence of a material world. In Leibniz's view there are infinitely many simple substances, which he called " monads " possibly taking the term from the work of Anne Conway. Leibniz developed his theory of monads in response to both Descartes and Spinoza , because the rejection of their visions forced him to arrive at his own solution.

    Monads are the fundamental unit of reality, according to Leibniz, constituting both inanimate and animate objects. These units of reality represent the universe, though they are not subject to the laws of causality or space which he called " well-founded phenomena ". Leibniz, therefore, introduced his principle of pre-established harmony to account for apparent causality in the world.

    Kant is one of the central figures of modern philosophy , and set the terms by which all subsequent thinkers have had to grapple. He argued that human perception structures natural laws, and that reason is the source of morality. His thought continues to hold a major influence in contemporary thought, especially in fields such as metaphysics, epistemology, ethics, political philosophy, and aesthetics.

    Kant named his brand of epistemology " Transcendental Idealism ", and he first laid out these views in his famous work The Critique of Pure Reason. In it he argued that there were fundamental problems with both rationalist and empiricist dogma. To the rationalists he argued, broadly, that pure reason is flawed when it goes beyond its limits and claims to know those things that are necessarily beyond the realm of all possible experience: the existence of God , free will, and the immortality of the human soul.

    Kant referred to these objects as "The Thing in Itself" and goes on to argue that their status as objects beyond all possible experience by definition means we cannot know them. To the empiricist he argued that while it is correct that experience is fundamentally necessary for human knowledge, reason is necessary for processing that experience into coherent thought.

    He therefore concludes that both reason and experience are necessary for human knowledge. In the same way, Kant also argued that it was wrong to regard thought as mere analysis. Rationalism has become a rarer label tout court of philosophers today; rather many different kinds of specialised rationalisms are identified.

    For example, Robert Brandom has appropriated the terms "rationalist expressivism" and "rationalist pragmatism" as labels for aspects of his programme in Articulating Reasons , and identified "linguistic rationalism", the claim that the contents of propositions "are essentially what can serve as both premises and conclusions of inferences", as a key thesis of Wilfred Sellars. Rationalism was criticized by William James for being out of touch with reality. James also criticized rationalism for representing the universe as a closed system, which contrasts to his view that the universe is an open system.

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Philosophical view that reason should be the chief source of knowledge. Not to be confused with rationality or rationalization sociology. Baruch Spinoza. Gottfried Leibniz. Immanuel Kant. Main article: Theory of justification.