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In a series of papers written with Dartmouth's Kenneth French, Fama has argued that the capital asset pricing model, or at least its s corollary that the risk premium is constant, doesn't match the facts. Ibbotson's stock market forecasting model is thus a victim of its own success. Ibbotson agrees that Fama has a point, and that he can no longer bank on the historical equity premium to predict future returns. The alternative he has come up with is an estimate based on fundamentals.

He takes the The drivers of stock returns that remain are dividends, earnings growth, and inflation. Make a forecast of future inflation using current bond yields, assume that dividend and earnings growth history will repeat themselves, and you get a long-run equity-return forecast of 9.


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When Ibbotson and his company's director of research, Peng Chen, first ran the numbers in , the gap between the new forecast and the one using the equity premium method was more than a percentage point. But Ibbotson's revised forecasting method doesn't insulate him from criticism any more than the old way. In fact, it invites new criticism.

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See "Dueling Market Forecasts" chart. The big difference between his forecast and Ibbotson's is that Arnott uses the current dividend yield 1. Ibbotson believes the historical number provides a better picture of what investors think is ahead. He still relies on the assumption that markets are efficient, so current dividend yields must be low for a reason--his guess is that investors are expecting big growth in earnings and dividends in the future.

Arnott, whose research has shown that low yields in the past were followed by slow earnings growth, thinks that's balderdash. But the theoretical assumption that the market knows best is central to Ibbotson's whole forecasting endeavor, something even Arnott acknowledges.

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And if the market turns out to be wrong about that, it won't just be Roger Ibbotson who feels the pain. That's economist Roger Ibbotson's forecast for stock market returns. So how come some people think we shouldn't believe him anymore? More from Fortune Will Mmmhops be a hit?

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Music Party. FoodDrink Party. Holiday Party. Save This Event Log in or sign up for Eventbrite to save events you're interested in. I thank you all for this contribution. Michael Kirchoff works in the worlds of both commercial and fine art photography. A commercial shooter for over twenty-five years, it is his fine art work that has set him apart from others, with instant film and toy camera images fueling more than a few bodies of work.

His consulting, training, and overall support of his fellow photographic artist continues with assistance in constructing ones vision, reviewing portfolios, and finding exhibition opportunities, which fill the gaps in time away from active shooting. Currently, he is also Editor-in-Chief at Analog Forever Magazine , and has recently founded the online photographer interview website, Catalyst: Interviews.

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